Rytro k. Nowego Sącza, 19.11.2015
The presentation contains an analyses of widely used methods of risk valuation which have been developed within science of finance in order to assess risk of mineral deposits development stage. It has been indicated that a development stage typically spans over several years and is not only characterized by risks factors different than the ones pertinent to an operational stage but also has different fundamentals. As actual results deviate almost exclusively in a negative way from investors’ expectations it represents more insurable than financial risk. Consequently application of valuation tools developed for assessment of financial risk leads to alternate substantially valuation results. The presentation is based on the article published in Bulletin of the Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences, no 91.
Articles in Scientific Journals
“Mineral Assets Valuation. Directions for further development. Methodological approach” (Wycena aktywów geologiczno-górniczych. Kierunki dalszego rozwoju. Podejście metodyczne), IGSMiE PAN, Kraków 2019.
Co-author, “ Mines’ Closures and Rehabilitation of Post-Mining Areas in Open-pit Mining. Technical, legal and economic issues.” (Likwidacja kopalń i rekultywacja terenów pogórniczych w górnictwie odkrywkowym. Problemy techniczne, prawne i finansowe.), IGSMiE PAN, Kraków 2010.
Co-author, “Foundations of mineral assets valuation” (Podstawy wyceny wartości złóż kopalin. Teoria i praktyka.), IGSMiE PAN, Kraków 2008.
Co-author, „Valuing mineral deposits. Methods, problems, real-life solutions.” (Wycena wartości złóż kopalin. Metody, problemy, praktyczne rozwiązania.), AGH – Uczelniane Wydawnictwa Naukowo-Dydaktyczne, Kraków, 2005.
Books
ACADEMIC PUBLICATIONS ON MINERAL ASSETS’ VALUATION
Case 1 (A challenging valuation). Limestone. One of quite common minerals. Used for various purposes. Generally the highest value application is by cement industry. The other refer to absorption capacities (sulphur capture in power plants) or construction. If a property under valuation is being exploited at full capacity and used for the cement industry the task looks quite simple: just another DCF exercise. The real challenge comes when it is not. After all there is a limited number of cement plants globally and they tend to be bigger and bigger. Due to transportation costs they have to be supplied by mines located in a short distance away. At present 3 million tons of annual capacity seems to be the minimum standard. Is there a chance that a new one will be located in the near neighborhood? Certainly there are another options. Construction industry may take a significant volume. However from their perspective limestone may have many disadvantages. For the sulphur cupture purposes limestone has to demonstrate certain properties – in fact in some cases a given material may be technically unacceptable. And even if this obstacle is overcome one faces a similar problem as in case of the cement industry: big power plants with sulphur capture installations are not built in every city. For the construction industry limestone is in general quite unattractive material: is soft and not resistant to various environmental constrains, for example water. So definitely process obtained from this industry will be much lower than ones acceptable for the former two. The solution applied was a mixed of the classical DCF approach, option pricing and scenario analysis. The complex analyses performed allowed to establish unconditioned current price accepted by a buyer and its auditor.
CREDENTIALS & CONSULTING PROJECTS PERFORMED